Was Mark Duplass Right?
+ Indie TV series production and distribution moment in the sun
Hello! We had an overwhelming response to last week’s newsletter discussing whether there’s an argument to be made doing a theatrical release for independently financed and produced films. Thank you for all the emails, comments, and shares to your friends and colleagues 🙏
One of the most common questions I’ve been asked since embarking on this Distribution Trends series is whether the digital-first distribution approach works for Independently produced Series, the same way it does in for film.
☝️ Is Your Distribution Strategy On Point?
But before I get into that - if you want a professional evaluation of your film or series potential across all the distribution windows we’ve discussed so far (Theatrical, Premium TVOD, SVOD, AVOD, etc.) I’m offering a limited number of Distribution Audits that you can apply for by emailing a link the trailer for your film and your IMDB page to me at stacey@filmspecific.com.
Even if I don’t feel I can help with your project, I’m happy to try and point you in the right direction as best possible! 🙌
Was Mark Duplass Right?
Mark Duplass lit up the stage at SeriesFest earlier this year when he spoke on a panel about the Future Of Indie TV and inspired everyone in the room to pursue finding a way to fund and produce your own series and figure out distribution later.
And shortly after that he was proven right when Netflix acquired his series.
But let’s face it, we don’t all have the connections or even talent that Mark Duplass has to pull off such a success. Most of us also don’t have the deep pockets he has to fund our series in the first place, or lucky enough to Premiere our series at Sundance 🤷🏻♀️
What Mark did though is demonstrate a path for the rest of us to follow, even if it’s in a ‘smaller’ way.
The big questions is always how much to make these for? (Mark didn’t disclose his series budget for Penelope but I’m guessing it’s in the high six figures or low seven)
Those of you who have been around a while will identify that I’ve changed my mind around independently funded and distributed series and you’d be right. Now, in 2024, I do believe there’s a viable path forward in this regard and I’ve got my hands in a few projects myself that we’re funding through independent means and will distribute across all the relevant windows after the fact.
The trick is always trying to estimate what distribution revenues will be in order to back into a reasonable budget that you feel confident raising financing for.
In speaking with my Distribution and Sales contacts, a safe series budget range tends to be in the $50K-$100K (unscripted and scripted) and $150K-$250 (or higher) budget if and only if there’s a ‘capital C’ Celebrity involved (think big movie star or top athlete, brand, etc.)
Yes, you read those numbers right!
I know it’s no easy feat to even get your head around budgets that low for a 6-8 episode series but if you want to optimize for recoupment and profitability, this is the ballpark you want to be operating in.
It probably means you’re not paying yourself from those budgets but in exchange, you own the asset and can exploit it however you wish and all that profit is yours (and your investors’). And if you’re lucky like Mark, you’ll get a home run acquisition from a Tier 1 Streamer and really come out ahead (his Netflix deal was a short domestic license only so he still has international and second window to exploit).
This formula is by no means set in stone but at least offers a basic framework for how to approach independent series production and distribution.
Mark was adamant in saying don’t even bother raising money to shoot a pilot because no one is commissioning new series from your indie pilot right now unless it’s the A list of the A list. Instead, raise enough financing to make the entire series yourself, control your destiny, and own all the upside yourself.
Admittedly not all of the indie series I’m seeing are working out to be profitable endeavors. I’ve spoken to distributors who have series that have 3x-4x their budgets in distribution revenue and others that are woefully far away from even breaking even. So it’s definitely a case of YMMV (your mileage may vary) in this Wild West world of Indie TV 🌎
What questions do y’all have?
Hit me up in the comments below and I’ll talk to you again soon!
Stacey
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"It probably means you’re not paying yourself from those budgets but in exchange, you own the asset and can exploit it however you wish and all that profit is yours (and your investors’). " This. This is some good stuff. Like any of those tech startups where you're putting a whole lot of time and money in until the payoff. Thank you Stacey.
I have gone to VIDCON for 12+ years, first introduced to this amazing convention through a friend. At the time, very few people in the DGA and PGA (I'm a member) had even heard about it. Hollywood was disdainful. But the VIDCON conference (originally in Anaheim, CA) started there with one building and now uses all of them for the conference. Most people there are freedom oriented creators meaning that they don't want network notes, interference from know-nothing executives or more. They just want to create. Eventually VIACOM took notice and bought the VIDCON conference and now has them in Europe, Australia, East coast US, etc., The difference between even NATPE, DGA Digital Day and the PGA conference could not contrast more with VIDCON. VIDCON has dynamic presentations and seminars, a sea of creators, cutting edge content, audience outreach strategies and more. You walk into the halls and FEEL the enthusiasm and excitement, galvanizing the mission of creativity. I could see the writing on the wall for Creative Indie works there as compared to the hierarchical nature of Hollywood with its massive cost structure. Exploring unique niche audience for creative freedoms and profitability is the trend.